Raoul Pal attempts to replay "1011": Top CEX forced to step in, followed by ongoing sell pressure leading to market weakness

Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal said in a podcast this week that Bitcoin’s fair value, per his global liquidity model, should be around $140,000. However, the “1011 event” (triggered by Trump’s tariff policy) caused crypto to underperform stocks and gold, he noted. Pal outlined the “1011 event” as follows: A major macro shock spurred mass liquidation of highly leveraged positions. At the peak of cascading selloffs, Binance’s API briefly went offline, blocking professional market makers from placing orders, providing liquidity, or hedging risks. A chain reaction amplified losses, forcing top centralized exchanges (CEXs) to use their balance sheets to absorb positions and prevent a full system collapse. As a result, Pal estimates CEXs passively absorbed roughly $10 billion in assets. The market’s subsequent long-term weakness stems from these CEXs algorithmically selling their inventory during U.S. stock market open hours to offload holdings, he explained. Pal expects the current wave of selling pressure to be mostly “digested” by the end of February. Once that pressure clears, he predicts Bitcoin will rebound quickly to hit $140,000. Additionally, he noted MicroStrategy’s debt risk is manageable—likely a correction for “Strategy”—as CEO Michael Saylor has strengthened the balance sheet via debt issuances and equity moves.