Five Major Institutions Outlook on the Fed's 2026 Rate Cut Path

On January 28th, five major institutions—JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo—shared their outlooks on the Federal Reserve’s 2026 rate cuts and tonight’s policy decision. Here’s a breakdown: ### Barclays - **Rate Cut Outlook**: Total of 50 basis points (cuts in June and December). - **Key View**: The FOMC will likely signal no rush to cut rates further, noting balanced risks between downside employment risks and upside inflation risks. - **Powell Expectations**: He will reinforce the FOMC’s “no rush to ease” stance. ### Bank of America - **Rate Cut Outlook**: Total of 50 basis points (cuts in June and July). - **Key View**: Political factors may take focus at the January meeting; the Fed will hold policy steady with no change to its balanced risk assessment. - **Powell Expectations**: His press conference may center on political (not policy) issues—but current market pricing carries unexpected dovish risks. ### Citigroup - **Rate Cut Outlook**: Total of 50 basis points (cuts in June and September). - **Key View**: If future cuts are for policy normalization (not immediate risks), policymakers will seek broader consensus than last December, contingent on clearer inflation progress. - **Powell Expectations**: He will emphasize three recent rate cuts stabilized the labor market, and current policy is appropriate to assess their impact. ### JPMorgan Chase - **Rate Cut Outlook**: No rate cuts in 2026. - **Key Points**: After three earlier risk-management cuts, most FOMC members see the current pause as appropriate. - **Powell Expectations**: He will state current policy suffices for the dual mandate, and avoid Fed-related political discussions. ### Wells Fargo - **Rate Cut Outlook**: Total of 50 basis points (cuts in March and June). - **Key View**: A strong case: the longer the FOMC waits to cut, the higher the economic threshold for further easing. - **Powell Expectations**: He will not signal March easing; he may face DOJ investigation questions, but responses will align with prior statements. (Source: FXStreet)