Bitunix Analyst: Energy and Industrial Chain Risks Unresolved, Policy Maintains Tight Stance, Market Enters "High Inflation Expectation Liquidity Lock-in" Phase
April 3rd
The market’s key tension has shifted further—from just war risks to a structural impasse of “stubborn inflation + rigid policy stance.”
No relief is in sight on the energy front: Russian exports are disrupted, OPEC+ is still weighing potential output hikes, the U.S. has not signaled tapering talks, and uncertainty around passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains persistently high. All this keeps oil and diesel prices elevated.
Meanwhile, tariffs (on steel, aluminum, copper) and potential drug tariffs are broadening. Cost pressures are spreading beyond energy to a wider manufacturing and consumer goods system, and global supply chain strains aren’t easing—they’re worsening.
On the policy front, liquidity support is now clearly off the table. Top Fed officials have explicitly signaled they’re leaning toward holding steady, tweaking liquidity structure via regulatory tools instead of rate cuts. The IMF went further, noting almost no room for rate cuts over the nex
7 minutes ago
Analyst: $21.2 Billion Nominal Value Options Set to Expire Today, Market Metrics Show Typical Bear Market Characteristics
On April 3rd, per data from Greeks.live:
- 28,000 Bitcoin (BTC) options are expiring today. The put-call ratio stands at 0.54, the maximum pain point is $68,000, and the notional value totals $1.8 billion.
- Additionally, 156,000 Ethereum (ETH) options are expiring today. Their put-call ratio is 0.73, the maximum pain point is $2,075, and the notional value is $320 million.
Greeks.live analyst Adam noted that today marks the first weekly expiration following the quarterly expiry. Bitcoin options’ market share has hit a new high, clearly exceeding 80%. In terms of maturity, the most widely held options right now are for late April and late June—each around 23%. Ethereum’s options are more concentrated, with the largest share (roughly 30%) in June contracts, pointing to stronger trading activity in Bitcoin options.
The market remains relatively weak: a minor rebound is quickly followed by a drop back to $66,000. Crypto trading activity is still muted, and we’re seeing typical b
7 minutes ago
Drift Theft or Force Funds Through Jupiter, On-chain Whale Liquidates $1.22M Position
On April 3rd, HyperInsight monitoring (via its Telegram channel at https://t.me/HyperInsight) reported that amid ongoing fallout from the Drift theft incident—coupled with Jupiter’s official statement that the platform was unaffected by the event—some funds may have flowed out via Jupiter. This triggered a temporary surge in trading volume, pushing JUP up 3.1% with its high briefly topping $0.16.
During this period, a whale with an address starting with 0x8b0 on Hyperliquid fully closed out its JUP short position in half an hour, incurring a loss of approximately $33,700 at a liquidation price of $0.1625. The position had a notional value of $1.22 million prior to liquidation, making it the platform’s largest short-position whale.
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Analyst: Bitcoin Profit/Loss Supply Nears ‘Capitulation’ Levels
On April 3rd, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s current profit supply stands at roughly 11.2 million coins, while its loss supply is around 8.2 million—levels approaching typical bear market ranges.
By comparison, at the 2022 bear market low, profit supply was 9 million coins and loss supply hit ~10.6 million. Darkfost argues this signals the market is entering a "significantly undervalued state," with a potential bottom near.
However, Bitrue research director Andri Fauzan Adziima contends the data reflects "rising market pressure, not immediate undervaluation." A true bottom, he says, would require deeper losses: e.g., loss supply exceeding 50% of total circulating supply and profit supply dropping below 45%. Currently, Bitcoin is down ~52% from its all-time high—far less than the 77%-84% drawdowns seen in prior bear markets.
Additionally, analyst Timothy Peterson points out that a stronger U.S. dollar (the U.S. Dollar Index has climbed ~5% in two months) and
7 minutes ago
XPL Plunges 40% in Rug Pull: Top Five Insider Addresses Make $1.6M Profits and Exit Scam, Triggering $32.99M On-Chain Whale Short
On April 3rd, data from Coinglass and Hyperinsight Monitoring (Telegram: https://t.me/HyperInsight) shows the XPL token price saw sharp overnight volatility.
Between 1:00–5:00 AM, XPL surged 42% in a straight line to a high of $0.167. But starting at 5:10 AM, it plummeted over 40% in less than 5 minutes—dropping below $0.12 and erasing all intraday gains.
Ahead of the spike, five new Hyperliquid addresses simultaneously deposited funds around 1:00 AM: each transaction exceeded $200k, totaling ~$1.292 million. They then heavily opened leveraged XPL long positions, likely coordinating with buy orders on other platforms to pump the price. During this run, the five addresses racked up massive unrealized profits, more than doubling their initial capital.
Between 4:30–4:40 AM, the five addresses quickly withdrew all deposited margins plus gains—pushing their liquidation price sharply higher, near the threshold. At 5:10 AM, they were simultaneously liquidated at ~$0.12971, triggering
7 minutes ago