Trump Eyes 'Locking In' Fed Chair Pick, Kevin Warsh Front Runner

On January 17, President Trump said of White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett: “I want him to remain in his current position—we’ll see.” His comment hinted Trump may have another candidate in mind for Federal Reserve Chair, shifting market expectations from a split between Hassett and Kevin Warsh to a clear lead for Warsh. Notably, before Trump’s remarks, Hassett himself noted: “Warsh and Rieder would also make great Fed Chairs”—suggesting he may already have some insight into Trump’s final pick. Polymarket forecasting data shows Hassett’s nomination probability has dropped to 15%—on par with Fed Governor Waller—while Warsh’s odds have risen to over 60%, making him the current front-runner by a wide margin. Unlike Hassett, a close Trump ally viewed as a “definite dove,” Warsh takes a more hawkish stance—but markets expect he would still support rate cuts while advancing balance sheet reduction (QT). Earlier this year, Warsh argued “inflation is a choice,” claiming it stems not from supply chains or geopolitics but Fed policy decisions. He’s bullish on the U.S. economic outlook, predicting AI and deregulation will drive a productivity boom akin to the 1980s.