Analysis: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Effect is Weakening, Policy Forces are Reshaping Transaction Logic

As of January 16, the market has entered a new phase dominated by policy signals—weakening the four-year cycle long viewed as a core Bitcoin narrative. Analysis shows political and macro policy impacts on prices are increasingly outpacing on-chain factors like the halving. While U.S. stocks posted strong gains in 2025, Bitcoin has lagged relatively, reflecting a market now driven more by liquidity expectations and policy timing than broad risk appetite. Under the traditional model, early 2026 should mark the cycle’s end—but current trends suggest investors are pushing this timeline back, with policy factors leading the way. Institutional analysts note that pre-election fiscal stimulus and blurry lines between fiscal and monetary policy are creating conditions akin to "financial repression." Against a backdrop of high government spending and suppressed real interest rates, traditional bonds and credit are losing appeal, while digital assets’ allocation value is growing. Looking ahead to 2026, the market broadly expects Bitcoin’s trajectory to grow more dependent on policy direction and regulatory progress—especially U.S. crypto market structure legislation. Analysts note that ETF-driven institutional demand remains a long-term support, but policy shifts will determine if institutional capital flows into the market further.