TD Cowen Lowers Strategy Price Target to $440, Cites Bitcoin Return Outlook Pressure

On January 15, investment bank TD Cowen cut its one-year price target for Bitcoin-focused firm Strategy from $500 to $440, citing ongoing dilution of its Bitcoin yield (defined as Bitcoin holdings per share growth) from the company’s continued use of common and preferred stock financing. TD Cowen analysts now project Strategy will add ~155,000 Bitcoin coins in fiscal 2026 (up from a prior forecast of 90,000), but the faster acquisition pace will rely primarily on equity financing—diluting the firm’s Bitcoin yield. The bank has cut its fiscal 2026 Bitcoin yield forecast to 7.1%, down sharply from a prior 8.8% and well below fiscal 2025’s 22.8%. Amid a recent Bitcoin price pullback, Strategy ramped up its coin purchases. For the week ended January 11, the firm issued ~6.8 million common shares and 1.2 million STRC floating-rate preferred shares, raising ~$1.25 billion—nearly all of which was used to buy 13,627 Bitcoin coins. TD Cowen noted the financing was priced near book value, limiting the resulting Bitcoin yield; the move only makes sense if Bitcoin prices stage a meaningful recovery. Looking ahead, TD Cowen forecasts Strategy’s fiscal 2027 Bitcoin yield will rise to 8.1%. The bank remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price, projecting it will hit ~$177,000 by end-2026 and ~$226,000 by end-2027.