Bitwise CIO: If ETF Demand Persists Long Term, Bitcoin Will See Parabolic Upsurge

**Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: Sustained Bitcoin ETF Demand Could Spark Parabolic Surge, Echoing 2025 Gold Trend** On January 14, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan posted: *“If Bitcoin ETF demand holds long-term, BTC prices could rise parabolically—mirroring gold’s 2025 performance. Both assets’ prices are fundamentally driven by supply and demand. The mainstream view links gold’s 65% 2025 annual surge to massive central bank purchases that shifted the supply-demand dynamic, and Bitcoin is now in the early stages of this same pattern.”* Central bank gold purchases spiked in 2022, following the U.S. freezing and seizing of Russian Treasury assets. Annual buys jumped from ~500 tons to ~1,000 tons, where they’ve stayed. These purchases shifted the balance but didn’t immediately lift prices: gold rose just 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024. It wasn’t until 2025 that gold entered a true parabolic uptrend. The catalyst? Early on, central banks’ extra demand was soaked up by willing sellers—but over time, those sellers dried up. When demand stays strong and available supply for sale shrinks, prices surge rapidly. The same dynamic is now playing out with Bitcoin. Since U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs launched in January 2024, ETF inflows have exceeded 100% of new BTC supply. But prices haven’t gone parabolic yet—because existing holders are still willing to sell. If ETF demand holds (as I expect), those sellers will eventually run out of willing supply.