VanEck: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Broken in 2025, Future Trend Still Cautious for the Next 3 to 6 Months

On January 13, VanEck noted in a post: “As 2026 gets underway, fiscal and monetary policy signals are growing clearer, the broader market is leaning more toward risk-taking, and investment opportunities in artificial intelligence (AI), private credit, gold, and crypto assets are becoming more attractive following recent adjustments. “The 2026 market landscape is a scenario investors haven’t seen in years: a clear outlook. Defined expectations around fiscal policy, monetary policy direction, and core investment themes support a more constructive, risk-on strategy—but investors still need high discernment when selecting assets. “In crypto markets, Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle broke in 2025, complicating short-term signals. This deviation calls for a cautious take on trends over the next 3–6 months. However, this isn’t an internal consensus: the team has differing views, with Matthew Sigel and David Schassler more bullish on the current cycle’s short-term performance.”