Analysis: Powell Investigation Triggers Bitcoin Spike Above $92,000, But ETF Ongoing Net Outflows and Weak Leveraged Demand Suppress Upside Potential

Bitcoin briefly topped $92,000 on Monday, January 13, per Cointelegraph—driven by a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by U.S. federal prosecutors. Analysts raised questions about whether the Fed’s independence could be compromised, a development some linked to potential benefits for scarce alternative assets like Bitcoin. While the news sparked a short-lived rally, it left traders cautious overall, with sentiment weighed by ongoing Bitcoin ETF outflows and weak demand for long leverage positions. Despite a recent rebound, Bitcoin remains roughly 23% below its October 2025 high, while gold and silver hit all-time highs in 2026. This divergence has traders questioning if the “Bitcoin as a digital store of value” narrative is weakening. Bitcoin futures’ annualized premium (basis) stays around 5%—a neutral-to-bearish level. Typically, a bullish sentiment shift pushes the futures premium to spot to 10% or higher. More critically, Bitcoin spot ETFs posted $1.38 billion in total net outflows over four straight trading days. Even more concerning: a major holder added ~$1.25 billion in Bitcoin holdings over the past month, yet the price still struggles to hold above $94,000. Overall, Bitcoin and crypto appeal remains subdued—evidenced by ETF flows and soft demand for leveraged long positions. This suggests the probability of a surprise short-term surge to $105,000 is relatively low.