BlackRock 2026 Outlook Report: Digital Assets as the Foundation of Payment and Settlement Infrastructure, Bullish on AI-Related US Stocks

January 13 – BlackRock has released its 2026 Global Outlook report, highlighting massive AI infrastructure investment driving the "micro is macro" trend, alongside challenges like rising leverage and the "diversification mirage." The firm maintains a pro-risk stance, overweighting U.S. stocks (notably AI-related names) and bullish on active investment opportunities. ### Three Core Themes 1. **Micro is Macro** A handful of firms dominate AI buildout, with capital expenditure (capex) on a scale to impact the global macroeconomy. Investment could hit $5–$8 trillion (2025–2030), boosting U.S. 2026 growth (investment contribution 3x historical average) even as the labor market cools. Uncertainty remains over whether revenue will match expenditure and how much flows back to tech giants. While AI may accelerate innovation, the report notes 150 years of major tech shifts haven’t broken the U.S.’s 2% long-term growth trend—but a "growth breakout" is now plausible. 2. **Leveraging Up** Early AI builders’ heavy investment and lagging revenue have lifted system leverage; combined with high government debt, this creates vulnerability. BlackRock favors private credit and infrastructure financing, and tactically underweights long-term government bonds (e.g., U.S. Treasuries) due to unfavorable conditions for long bonds amid high leverage and rising capital costs. 3. **Diversification Mirage** Dominant trends mean traditional diversified allocations may hide concentrated bets. Investors need to take active risks, keep portfolios flexible (with a Plan B), and seek unique returns from private markets and hedge funds. ### Digital Assets Takeaway BlackRock views digital assets (especially stablecoins) as financial system "plumbing" for payments and settlements—not purely speculative. Stablecoins are framed as "digital dollar rails," evolving from crypto-native tools to bridges between traditional finance (TradFi) and digital liquidity. They’re expanding into cross-border payments and settlements, particularly in regions where traditional systems are slow, expensive, or fragmented. The report adds crypto is integrating into mainstream finance, with stablecoins maturing as infrastructure to support global liquidity flows and overlap with TradFi.