Analysis: BTC Officially Enters Second Half of Bear Market, Final Dip Unlikely to Break $45,500
April 3rd, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the on-chain average cost basis for BTC held 1–2 years (yellow line) has crossed above that for BTC held 1–3 months (orange line). This signal is nearly 100% confirmed in on-chain data, marking BTC’s official entry into the latter half of the bear market.
Additionally, Murphy noted that Willy Woo—renowned Bitcoin on-chain analyst—saw his long-term valuation metric CVDD hit $45,410 at the end of last month, with only a slow $506 increase since February 10. This reflects that early whale holders have significantly reduced, or nearly halted, on-chain activity.
CVDD is one of the few metrics in Bitcoin’s history that has never failed: BTC’s price has always traded above CVDD, and bear market bottoms only ever approach it without breaking below. Thus, even if there’s a “final drop,” BTC will theoretically not fall below ~$45,500—with a maximum potential decline of ~30%, though the actual drop is likely far smaller.
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IMF: Tokenized Finance Will Reconstruct the Global Market Architecture, Displacing Financial Intermediaries
April 3rd — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest report that tokenized finance is not a simple upgrade to traditional finance, but a structural transformation. It replaces intermediaries with smart contracts and shared ledgers, restructuring the global market’s architecture.
Currently, the value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) has hit $27.5 billion, with over $12 billion tied to tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds.
The IMF notes that while tokenization enables near-instant settlement and 24/7 trading, its speed, automation and programmability may amplify systemic risks—quickly spreading liquidity crises under market pressure—without the buffering effect of traditional settlement delays.
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CFTC Sues Three States in U.S., Affirming Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Predictive Markets
April 3 — The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed separate lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, reaffirming its exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts and prediction markets under the Commodity Exchange Act.
The agency accuses the three states of seeking to prohibit, limit, or regulate registered designated contract markets (DCMs)—including platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket—through other state-level regulatory measures.
The CFTC is asking federal courts to declare the states’ actions invalid and bar them from interfering with prediction market activities that comply with federal rules.
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Tyson Fury will attend the TRUMP Token holder luncheon and deliver a speech
On April 3rd, TRUMP Token officially announced that boxing legend Mike Tyson has been invited to attend an exclusive lakeside mansion luncheon for TRUMP Token holders on April 25th. Tyson will deliver a speech at this exclusive cryptocurrency and business conference.
Earlier reports noted that former President Trump will host a grand luncheon for TRUMP Token holders, with himself and 18 "superstars" in attendance. The top 297 token holders will be eligible to join the April 25th lakeside mansion event, while the top 29 holders will be invited to a special VIP reception and champagne toast—where they will share the stage with President Trump.
As of now, the leaderboard for the TRUMP Token holder luncheon is topped by "Sun," with the second spot held by the Chinese username "Little x."
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Trump's Newly Appointed Attorney General Previously Held BTC, ETH, SOL, and Other Cryptocurrencies
April 3rd (CoinDesk) — After firing Attorney General Pam Bondi, former President Trump appointed Todd Branch—his former personal lawyer and ex-Deputy Attorney General—as acting Attorney General.
Branch previously disbanded the Department of Justice’s National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET) during his tenure as Deputy Attorney General and signed a memo telling prosecutors to stop pursuing regulatory violation cases involving the cryptocurrency industry. That memo was cited by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York in the case of Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm, resulting in one charge being dismissed.
Notably, Branch held between $159,000 and $485,000 in crypto assets (including BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA) when he signed the enforcement memo—sparking questions about potential violations of ethics rules and his prior pledge to divest such assets before handling crypto-related matters. Recent U.S. government ethics disclosure filings show Branch has tran
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