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Buffett Indicator Hits All-Time High, Signaling U.S. Stock Market Is Overvalued

2026.01.11 11:38:48

Jan. 11 data from Barchart shows the current Buffett Indicator—total U.S. stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio—stands at roughly 223% to 224%, with some sources even pegging it near 230%. That’s an all-time high, exceeding peaks of the 2000 dot-com bubble (≈150%) and the 2021 post-pandemic high. Historically, the indicator’s long-term average (since 1970) is about 80% to 100%, while 100% to 120% is considered a relatively normal "fair value" range. The Buffett Indicator is one of Warren Buffett’s most trusted broad market valuation metrics; he’s called it the "single best measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."
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