JPMorgan: Crypto De-risking Phase May Be Over as ETF Flows Show Signs of Stabilization

U.S. large diversified financial services holding company Stifel has raised its year-end S&P 500 target and rolled out a stock allocation framework for a "high-growth, high-inflation" environment. The firm lifted its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,800 points, noting the U.S. economy is entering a "running hot" state—where economic growth is strengthening alongside mounting inflationary pressure. Stifel’s models show U.S. growth momentum is picking up while inflation momentum is clearly overheating, a trend that will reshape the market’s leading sector structure in the second half of the year. Instead of traditional consumer sectors, Stifel’s top picks are investment-led cyclical industries, including banks, transportation, materials, energy, semiconductors, software and equipment. The firm adds that fixed-asset investment in AI remains on the rise: large tech firms including Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Google are projected to combine for roughly $725 billion in total capital expenditures in 2026, some $100 billion higher than prior estimates. This means the AI investment chain is likely to continue outperforming the consumption chain squeezed by inflation. Stifel advises investors to reduce exposure to discretionary consumer, consumer staples, communication services and some financial services sectors, as these areas see weaker earnings revisions. Conversely, the firm favors cyclical value stocks and hedges with defensive value sectors such as insurance, autos, energy and banks.

Chris Strazzeri, Financial Trading Manager of Moomoo’s Australia and New Zealand branch, stated: “The targeted sell-off indicates that following a sustained, strong rally in AI-related and speculative growth stocks, investors are enforcing strict valuation discipline. This serves as a warning to the market that actual earnings levels must now rise to support the currently overvalued price-to-earnings ratio. Micron Technology’s post-market earnings results largely confirm this, and its robust performance has lifted overall market sentiment in the tech sector.”

According to Bitget market data, the Roundhill T-REX 2X Long DRAM Daily Target ETF (Nasdaq ticker: RAM) officially launched trading yesterday. On its first trading day, the fund recorded a total turnover of $383 million, and rose 29.47% in after-hours U.S. stock trading to hit $30.8. Note: RAM’s underlying exposure covers companies engaged in memory-related technologies, including DRAM, NAND and storage solutions, targeting active traders seeking leveraged exposure to the memory chip theme and artificial intelligence infrastructure development.

BCA Research has become the latest strategy firm to raise its US stock market target, reflecting Wall Street’s growing optimism about earnings support for US equities in the second half of the year. The institution lifted its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,700 points to 8,100 points. BCA’s core view is that first-quarter corporate earnings exceeded expectations in both strength and breadth, and the US economy has re-entered an expansion phase. Similar to JPMorgan Chase, BCA believes this stock rally is not only driven by valuation expansion—earnings themselves are delivering the index’s gains. AI remains the core variable in this assessment. Large tech firms including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle continue to increase capital spending on data centers and AI infrastructure, driving growth in orders for chips, servers, construction, power and related industrial chains. This provides a clearer fundamental basis for upward revisions to 2026 and 2027 earnings. The institution points out that risks exist: the earnings expansion brought by AI investments has already been quickly priced into the market. If subsequent returns on capital spending are questioned, or interest rates remain elevated, further upside for the index will require more earnings confirmation rather than relying solely on investor risk appetite.

Tom Lee said the market is still digesting Kevin Warsh’s remarks from his first press conference last week and repricing the macro environment. Over the past week, oil prices have pulled back, with war premiums contracting. Current oil prices are not far from the roughly $65 level seen before the conflict, indicating the market views related war risks as declining. On the other hand, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, now around 4.5%, higher than the pre-conflict level of roughly 4.2%. The main headwind the market has faced recently has shifted from oil prices to yields. Tom Lee noted that the market is not only focused on 10-year U.S. Treasury yields but also starting to price in potential additional interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. According to federal funds futures, the market is currently pricing in nearly two rate hikes this year. Bank of America further projected today that the Fed will raise rates three times this year, in September, October, and December respectively. Jeffrey Gundlach often emphasizes the importance of monitoring 2-year U.S. Treasury yields, as they typically lead the Fed and signal the central bank’s policy direction. Between 2023 and 2025, the relationship between 2-year U.S. Treasury yields and the federal funds rate indicated that the Fed’s policy was overly tight, requiring interest rate cuts. However, this relationship has recently reversed, meaning the Fed would need two rate hikes to catch up with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields. He believes that, at least for now, yields have become a headwind for the market.

According to Bitget market data, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 3,191.37 points, or 4.61%, at 72,366.34 points on Thursday, June 25, hitting a new all-time closing high. South Korea’s KOSPI index rose 459.76 points (5.43%) to end at 8,930.78 points; SK Hynix surged 13% while Samsung Electronics gained more than 5%.