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Fitch: Expects Fed to Cut Rates Twice in First Half, Unemployment to Stay at 4.6% This Year

2026.01.08 22:32:42

On January 8, Fitch Ratings lifted its U.S. GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, incorporating economic data delayed by last year’s government shutdown into its outlook. The agency now projects 2025 GDP growth at 2.1%—up from 1.8% in its December 2025 Global Economic Outlook (GEO). For 2026, the forecast was revised higher to 2.0% from the prior 1.9%. Inflation trends have been hard to parse due to incomplete October data. Fitch estimates December 2025 CPI inflation rose to 3.0% (from 2.7% in November), and expects further increases in 2026—reaching 3.2% by year-end—driven by the delayed impact of tariff pass-through. With slowing job growth offset by declining labor force growth, the 2026 average unemployment rate is seen at 4.6%, near recent levels. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in the first half of 2026, lowering the federal funds rate’s upper limit to 3.25%.
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Crypto Market Holds Low-Level Oscillation, US Stocks Close Down, Crypto-Related Stocks Experience Widespread Declines, Bitcoin Sees Short-Term Rebound Break Above $67,000

As of April 3, per HTX market data, the crypto market has been trading in a narrow low-range oscillation. Bitcoin briefly rebounded this morning, topping $67,000, and now trades at $66,800—down 1.8% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum currently sits at $2,055, a 4.02% 24-hour drop. The total crypto market cap has fallen 1.3% in 24 hours, now at $2.394 trillion. SOL is priced at $79, BNB at $583. ### Top-Performing Altcoins (24h) - CTSI: +67.6% → $0.0037 - SOLV: +47.8% → $0.0057 - NOM: +36.7% → $0.0083 - FIDA: +26.2% → $0.0019 - SYN: +21.7% → $0.0058 ### Biggest Altcoin Losers (24h) - STO: -49.3% → $0.226 - BANK: -46.4% → $0.03 - D: -40.2% → $0.0083 - KITE: -16.4% → $0.129 - BLUR: -14.3% → $0.0197 ### U.S. Stock Update (per Bitget data) - Dow Jones: Initially down 0.13% - S&P 500: Up 0.1% - Nasdaq: Up 0.18% Crypto-related U.S. stocks saw broad declines: - MicroStrategy (MSTR): -2.4% - Coinbase (COIN): -0.88% - Circle (CRCL): -0.55% - BitMine Im

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SpaceX's First IPO Sprint Aims for $2 Trillion Valuation, Surpassing Meta and Tesla

April 3rd: Bloomberg reported Tuesday that SpaceX has raised its initial public offering (IPO) valuation target to over $2 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter. The company and its advisors are sharing this target with potential investors and gearing up for meetings in the coming weeks, with its roadshow presentation expected to include additional details to support the valuation. After acquiring xAI—another firm under Elon Musk’s umbrella—SpaceX’s post-merger valuation hit $1.25 trillion. At a $2 trillion valuation, SpaceX would outpace all S&P 500 companies except NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet (Google’s parent), Microsoft, and Amazon. It would also exceed two members of the U.S. stock market’s “Big Seven”: Meta and Musk’s own Tesla.

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Brent Crude Oil Futures Surge Above $140 per Barrel, Hitting a New High Since 2008

April 3: Spot Brent crude — the North Sea’s physical oil delivery benchmark — topped $140 per barrel, hitting its highest level since 2008. Per S&P Global Platts, North Sea-delivery Brent crude reached $141.37/bbl, marking the highest price since 2008. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for over a month, triggering the largest oil supply disruption in market history, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The strait handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, and refineries have been scrambling for available supplies in recent weeks. Spot Brent was just below $128/bbl one day earlier, and current prices now surpass the peak seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. While benchmark Brent crude futures remain below that peak, spot Brent reflects the price of oil traded over a shorter time horizon. (FXStreet)

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Hyperliquid continues to capture CEX market share, with the perpetual contract market share approaching 6%.

April 3rd According to The Block, decentralized perpetual contract platform Hyperliquid is gaining market share from centralized exchanges. In March, its share of total perpetual contract trading volume rose to nearly 6%—up sharply from ~3.5% a year ago—with monthly volume approaching $200 billion. Notably, this growth comes amid an overall decline in exchange trading volumes since the August 2025 peak, meaning Hyperliquid is actually capturing share rather than just riding a broader market surge. Among on-chain rivals, dYdX and GMX have failed to match Hyperliquid’s volume growth or product expansion, with the platform now clearly leading the decentralized perpetual contract space. A key structural driver behind the trend is Hyperliquid’s expansion into non-crypto assets. Commodities like oil are now tradable 24/7 on the platform, and non-crypto asset trading volume’s share of total activity is steadily rising. This underscores decentralized platforms’ structural edge over

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Trump: Iran is reaching the point where they will have to make a deal, or it will be too late

ForexLive: On April 3, U.S. President Donald Trump said, "Iran is coming to the table—and they will have to."

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"Pal" Increases ETH Long Position to 6860 Coins, Equivalent to $14.15 Million

As of April 3rd, monitoring data from HyperInsight (via its Telegram channel @HyperInsight) indicates that the entity "Buddy" has increased its ETH long position to 6,860 coins—valued at approximately $14.15 million. The position currently carries an unrealized loss of $70,000, with an opening price of $2,075.11 and a liquidation price of $1,981.13.

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