Tom Lee's Bearish Analyst: First Half Could See Risk-off Event Intensifying Volatility

**Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell Reaffirms Bitcoin’s Long-Term $1M Target, Flags 2026 Volatility; Ethereum Framed as “Small-Cap Tech Stock”** In a January 7 interview, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell said Bitcoin remains “on track” to hit $1 million long-term, with high-quality crypto assets backed by strong structural tailwinds. However, Farrell noted 2026 will be a “trader’s market,” marked by potential volatility from a “risk-clearing event” in the first half of the year. Bitcoin could dip to $60,000—what he called a “deep value area” and “buy-the-dip opportunity.” Improved liquidity, policy stimulus, and AI-driven growth will drive opportunities in the second half, he added. For Ethereum, Farrell framed ETH as a “small-cap tech stock” in the eyes of traditional asset managers. The token stands to benefit from Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, which saw 145% year-over-year growth in Q3 2025, bringing higher-quality assets into DeFi and boosting value capture. He set a year-end target of ~$4,500 for ETH. On Solana (SOL), Farrell said it will compete with Ethereum for RWA market share but lacks traditional asset manager support. Its strengths include high throughput, upcoming upgrades (Alpenglow, Firedancer), and potential inflation reduction. Price expectations: a Q1/Q2 dip to $50–$75, followed by a rebound to $220–$260. Post-risk-clearing for altcoins, Farrell predicted an “excellent cocktail” of opportunities: after ETH outperforms BTC, altcoins with reliable tokenomics and strong traction—especially RWA-related ones—will surge. Separately, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee previously said Bitcoin may hit a new all-time high by end-2026, while Farrell noted in a January 20 report that Bitcoin could fall to $60k–$65k and Ethereum to $1,800–$2,000 in H1 2026.