Analysis: On-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin may have bottomed out in November and still has significant upside potential

On January 6, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted that Bitcoin may have formed a phase—even cyclical—bottom when it dropped to roughly $80,000 in late November last year. Data shows that on November 24, the "Profit Supply/Loss Supply" ratio for short-term holders (holding period <155 days) fell to 0.013. Historically, this level has coincided with major market bottoms, including in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022. At the time, short-term holders’ loss supply surged to 2.45 million BTC—its highest level since the FTX collapse—while profit supply was just ~30,000 BTC. By early 2026, Bitcoin rebounded to ~$94,000 with cumulative gains of over 7%. Over the same period, loss supply for short-term holders dropped to 1.9 million BTC, profit supply rose to 850,000 BTC, pushing the ratio to ~0.45. Glassnode added that historically, when this ratio approaches 1 and breaks above it, Bitcoin often enters a sustained uptrend. True tops typically occur when the ratio nears 100. The current indicator remains far below this threshold, implying Bitcoin still has significant upside potential ahead.