Analysis: Bitcoin's price surge is not primarily driven by the Venezuela event, but by institutional adoption, a shift in crypto regulations, and an increase in risk appetite.

On January 6, Bitwise Research Director Ryan Rasmussen pushed back against the claim that Venezuela’s situation was the main driver of Bitcoin’s ~5% price surge, calling the initial logic linking Venezuela’s oil reserve release to lower oil prices, reduced inflation, falling interest rates, and Bitcoin’s rise “flawed.” Key points from his note: - Short-term rate cut odds are little changed from last week, and even 2026 expectations held steady after Maduro’s arrest. - **Institutional Adoption (Bullish):** Since the 2024 Bitcoin spot ETF launch, institutional capital has flowed steadily into crypto—accelerating lately. Big names like JPMorgan, BofA Merrill Lynch, and Wells Fargo are allocating assets, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing ~$500 million in net inflows on January 2 alone. - **Regulatory Shift (Bullish):** Post-2024 election crypto-friendly policies are taking shape, and the industry is starting to feel tangible benefits. Wall Street players (wealth managers, university endowments, pensions, sovereign wealth funds) are now more systematically allocating to Bitcoin. - **AI Optimism (Bullish for Risk Assets):** Fears of an AI bubble have eased, boosting investor sentiment. Funds are flowing back into risk-on assets like tech stocks and Bitcoin. - **Stable Rate Cut Expectations (Bullish):** Maduro’s arrest hasn’t altered short-term rate cut odds, nor has it ruled out QE (which is just getting started). Markets still expect 50+ basis points of rate cuts in 2026. “This weekend’s Venezuela events had some impact on Bitcoin, but they weren’t the primary driver of its ~5% price jump,” Rasmussen added.