Analysis: BTC Concentration of Holdings Decreasing, Supportive Chip Structure Effective, Rebound Probability Higher Than Continuing to Explore Lows After Fakeout

On Jan. 4, on-chain data analyst Murphy noted: - As of Jan. 1, 2026, Bitcoin’s (BTC) chip concentration within ±5% of its spot price hit 14.9%—just shy of the high-volatility risk zone. However, it dropped to 14.5% over Jan. 2–3 (instead of rising), while BTC prices edged up slowly. - Historical data shows: If chip concentration shifts from rising to falling amid BTC price gains, BTC will keep climbing as concentration continues to drop (and vice versa). URPD data currently indicates: - 822,000 BTC have accumulated at the $87k level, where bulls and bears are heavily divided. After an intense tug-of-war, the market is gradually settling on a direction. A rightward shift in the URPD volume position will confirm the effective support of the current URPD’s largest volume bar. Personal take: A reasonable range for BTC lies between $92k and $104k. Technical indicators: - The daily candlestick close has held above the downtrend line ($90,588)—triggering the anticipated rebound signal. While a false breakout can’t be ruled out, current data and comprehensive indicators suggest a true rebound is more likely than a downside probe after a fakeout. - Reassessment is needed only if BTC drops below the $87k effective support, falls back below the downtrend line, and chip concentration keeps rising.