Analysis: The community is displaying a cautious to bearish outlook on the cryptocurrency market, with market interest shifting towards the metal market

On December 26, Greeks.Live researcher Adam shared on social media that the crypto community remains cautious-to-bearish on the market, with traders leaning toward selling option premiums over placing directional bets. Key trading activity centers on the $88,770 strike for the December 26 options expiry, with traders noting max pain at $98,134. Probability models flag a 2σ (two-standard-deviation) move of -$17,000 in the 6-month outlook, while also highlighting a shift in market focus toward the metals space. ### Option Strategy Shift: Premium Selling Amid Uncertainty - Traders are planning bullish call spreads and naked put sales, with a focus on net selling of call options overall. They’re also holding short-term call/put positions in a set ratio to capture premiums amid low conviction. - A trader has put on an ETH short strangle (strikes 2750/3150, expires Jan 2) — though caution is advised to wait and see, given the risk of overtrading during the holiday lull with thin liquidity. - Consensus is building to hold off on trading until next Monday: traders see selling short-term call spreads and long-dated naked puts as the optimal play, though some are weighing a pivot to a simpler iron condor amid market uncertainty.