From Betting on Trump to Wagering on the NFL: Prediction Markets Set to Hit All-Time Highs in 2025
December 26, 2025 marked a milestone for the prediction market industry, with platforms Polymarket and Kalshi leading the charge—driving surges in investment, media coverage, and valuations as the space inches toward mainstream acceptance.
With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections on the horizon, the prediction market is poised to replicate the trading frenzy seen during the 2024 presidential race. The key question now: Can these platforms transition from being “traffic and topic-driven” to scalable prediction infrastructure?
### Capital Flows & Valuation Surges
- **Kalshi**: Secured $1 billion in November funding (led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG) at an $11 billion valuation, following an October $300 million Series D round that valued it at $5 billion.
- **Polymarket**: NYSE parent ICE invested $2 billion, with CEO Shayne Coplan later disclosing a ~$9 billion valuation.
Analysts note the prediction market’s core value lies not in short-term revenue, but in collective intel
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Analysis: The community is displaying a cautious to bearish outlook on the cryptocurrency market, with market interest shifting towards the metal market
On December 26, Greeks.Live researcher Adam shared on social media that the crypto community remains cautious-to-bearish on the market, with traders leaning toward selling option premiums over placing directional bets.
Key trading activity centers on the $88,770 strike for the December 26 options expiry, with traders noting max pain at $98,134. Probability models flag a 2σ (two-standard-deviation) move of -$17,000 in the 6-month outlook, while also highlighting a shift in market focus toward the metals space.
### Option Strategy Shift: Premium Selling Amid Uncertainty
- Traders are planning bullish call spreads and naked put sales, with a focus on net selling of call options overall. They’re also holding short-term call/put positions in a set ratio to capture premiums amid low conviction.
- A trader has put on an ETH short strangle (strikes 2750/3150, expires Jan 2) — though caution is advised to wait and see, given the risk of overtrading during the holiday lull with thin li
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2026 to Mark Ethereum ZK Rollup Inflection Point: Proof of Stake Sees 'Merge-like' Overhaul
December 26: Ethereum researchers and developers are eyeing 2026 as a pivotal year for the blockchain to unlock exponential scalability via zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs. By then, some validators will stop re-executing transactions and instead directly validate ZK proofs— a fundamental shift in how the network operates, on par with the 2022 merge from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS).
Ethereum researcher Justin Drake noted that initial validators will validate ZK proofs for each block rather than re-running all transactions, delivering instant scalability to Layer 1 and laying the groundwork for a future 10,000 transactions per second (TPS). For context, Ethereum’s mainnet currently handles roughly 30 TPS.
During Devconnet, Drake demonstrated that ZK proof validation can run on an old laptop. By the end of 2026, around 10% of validators are expected to switch to ZK validation mode (Lean Execution Phase 1). This shift will slash hardware requirements for validator nodes wh
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Binance Alpha New Airdrop SentismAI Point Threshold Revealed: Minimum 240 Points
Binance officially announced on December 26 that users holding at least 240 Binance Alpha Points are eligible to claim a SENTIS token airdrop. Specifically, eligible users can receive 320 SENTIS tokens via the Alpha event page.
If rewards aren’t fully distributed, the points threshold will drop by 5 points automatically every five minutes.
Please note: Claiming the airdrop will consume 15 Binance Alpha Points. Users must confirm their claim on the Alpha event page within 24 hours—otherwise, the airdrop will be considered waived.
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Binance CEO: Global Crypto Adoption is Accelerating, Crypto User Base Grows from 170 Million to 300 Million in Just One Year
Binance CEO Richard Teng shared updated data on Wednesday, Dec. 26, showing global cryptocurrency adoption is accelerating.
The figures reveal crypto user counts grew from 0 to 170 million over roughly 6.5 years—but jumped from 170 million to 300 million in just over a year. Teng noted this shift means the crypto community is expanding at an unprecedented pace, with a steep user growth curve that reflects rising global acceptance of digital assets.
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