Viewpoint: Quantum Computing Will Not Break Bitcoin by 2026, But Preparation Is Needed

Per Cointelegraph reports on December 25, experts from Argentum AI, Coin Bureau and other institutions noted in interviews that the 2026 quantum computing threat to cryptocurrencies remains theoretical rather than imminent. Clark Alexander, Head of AI at Argentum AI, stated commercial quantum computing applications are expected to be extremely limited in 2026. Nic Puckrin, Coin Bureau co-founder, said 90% of quantum threat claims are for marketing purposes—and it will take at least another decade for a computer capable of breaking existing cryptography to emerge. That said, experts flagged potential risks to the public-key cryptography relied on by blockchains like Bitcoin. Boosty Labs expert Sofiia Kireieva pointed out the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used for private/public keys is the weakest link, while the SHA-256 hash function has lower vulnerability. Ahmad Shadid, O Foundation founder, noted address reuse significantly increases hacking risk. Currently, roughly 25% to 30% of BTC (around 4 million coins) sits in addresses with exposed public keys—making them more vulnerable to quantum attacks. Sahara AI co-founder Sean Ren warned the real 2026 threat isn’t a system crash, but attackers hoarding encrypted data to decrypt later when technology matures. Cysic co-founder Leo Fan called this a "collect first, decrypt later" scenario. To mitigate risks, the crypto community has acted: Qastle announced in November plans to upgrade underlying cryptography for quantum-grade hot wallet security. Experts advise users to avoid address reuse and move funds promptly once quantum-resistant wallets are available. While 2026 won’t bring a "quantum doomsday," quantum computing will become an advanced risk factor in crypto security.