Analysis: Tomorrow's historically largest options expiration may amplify BTC volatility, with a potential rebound opportunity if BTC falls to $80,000-$82,000.

On December 25, data analyst Murphy noted that roughly $23.6 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire tomorrow—marking the largest options expiry in Bitcoin’s history. After market makers unwind their associated hedge positions, the support and resistance levels previously established via the options structure will temporarily lose validity, potentially amplifying BTC’s short-term volatility until all participants reposition to form a new market structure. If BTC retraces toward its prior bottom (around $80,000–$82,000) during this period, it would create a “short-term rebound opportunity.” Volatility in the structural vacuum phase does not necessarily signal the start of a new sharp decline. Additionally, a “bullish divergence” signal has emerged on the short-term timeframe for the “price and volume increment gradient.” This metric measures the relative momentum shift between BTC’s price action and actual capital inflows. When the rate of capital outflow slows relative to the speed of BTC’s price drop, it signals a downtrend correction and rebound demand. Between 2024–2025 and 2021–2022, BTC saw varying rebound rallies or even trend reversals following four such bullish divergence signals. However, given current overall market sentiment remains in a bearish corrective phase, rebound rallies are more likely than trend reversals.