Morgan Stanley: U.S. 'No Job Productivity Boom' Will Prompt Fed to Further Cut Rates

On December 25th, Polymarket’s current probabilities for Bitcoin’s December price moves are: 9% chance of falling below $80,000, 3% chance of dropping below $75,000, and 10% chance of surpassing $95,000.

On-chain Perps Volume is cooling off during the market downturn — except on Tron. Tron's daily Perps Volume has topped $1B for two days straight, and 7-day Perps Volume reached $5.77B, up 176% WoW.

On December 25, Infinex founder Kain Warwick took to social media to address the reduction in INX token sale proceeds and fully diluted valuation (FDV), saying: “The ICO was supposed to be attractive enough. If the price seems too steep or terms don’t align with backers’ interests, it could easily spark negative sentiment—and the market’s already drowning in ‘bad vibes’ right now.” We launched the Sonar round to give participants a chance to buy INX tokens before the Token Generation Event (TGE). Initially, we set the FDV at $3 billion with a 1-year lockup—but market feedback made clear this valuation was too high for current conditions, and conditions haven’t improved. We’ve listened to the community, so we’re cutting the FDV to $99.99 million. The 1-year lockup is meant to weed out participants who only plan to dump tokens for a quick profit at TGE. As previously reported, Infinex has updated its Sonar token sale details on Echo. The sale will offer 5% of total token supply,

On December 25, data analyst Murphy noted that roughly $23.6 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire tomorrow—marking the largest options expiry in Bitcoin’s history. After market makers unwind their associated hedge positions, the support and resistance levels previously established via the options structure will temporarily lose validity, potentially amplifying BTC’s short-term volatility until all participants reposition to form a new market structure. If BTC retraces toward its prior bottom (around $80,000–$82,000) during this period, it would create a “short-term rebound opportunity.” Volatility in the structural vacuum phase does not necessarily signal the start of a new sharp decline. Additionally, a “bullish divergence” signal has emerged on the short-term timeframe for the “price and volume increment gradient.” This metric measures the relative momentum shift between BTC’s price action and actual capital inflows. When the rate of capital outflow slows relative

**Perpetual DEX Trading Volume Drops Sharply Again: DefiLlama Data** As of December 25th, DefiLlama figures show mainstream perpetual DEX (Perp DEX) 24-hour trading volumes have fallen sharply again from the previous day. Lighter, which plans to launch its mainnet and issue tokens by December 31st, may conduct its final token distribution this Friday—potentially keeping its trading volume among the top tiers. Hyperliquid ranks second, while open interest (OI) has seen a slight uptick across most platforms. Key Perp DEX metrics follow: - **Lighter**: 24h volume ~$50.4B | TVL ~$14.1B | OI ~$15.5B - **Hyperliquid** ([app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/NTOD](https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/NTOD)): 24h volume ~$35B | TVL ~$41.3B | OI ~$72.6B - **Aster** ([www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/aboter](https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/aboter)): 24h volume ~$28.5B | TVL ~$12.7B | OI ~$24.3B - **EdgeX**: 24h volume ~$18.7B | TVL ~$3.68B | OI ~$7.61B - **ApeX**: 24h volume ~$17.6B | T

On December 25th, data from Coinglass shows that funding rates for major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchanges have edged back toward neutral territory. Specific funding rates for leading cryptocurrencies are available in the attached image. Per BlockBeats: A funding rate is a fee set by crypto exchanges to keep perpetual contract prices aligned with the underlying asset’s spot price. It facilitates fund transfers between long and short traders—exchanges do not collect this fee. The mechanism adjusts the cost or profit of traders holding positions to narrow gaps between contract and spot prices. Here’s the breakdown of what funding rates signal: - 0.01% = baseline rate - >0.01% = broadly bullish sentiment - <0.005% = broadly bearish sentiment