Lookonchain APP

App Store

Analysis: Currently, Bitcoin is in a fragile equilibrium state, and if it falls below $85,000, the decline will further intensify

2025.12.24 18:28:38

On December 24th, CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr noted that the **Net Pressure Imbalance indicator**—which measures the buy-sell pressure ratio for short-term holders—has fallen to the 5th percentile of its three-year distribution. This level signals that short-term holders’ buy and sell pressure are currently in balance. The Net Pressure Imbalance is calculated as the difference between short-term holders’ weighted sell pressure and weighted buy pressure: a positive value means higher current sell pressure, while a negative value signals stronger buy pressure. As of now, the 24-hour moving average of the indicator stands at 4.79, with the asset priced at $87,324. The three-year median for the indicator is 73.17, meaning sell pressure typically dominates during growth phases. The analyst added that historical periods of balanced pressure have been unstable—often shifting to an uptrend in bull markets before reverting to sell pressure dominance. However, the current setup is more complex: the asset’s price has stayed 13.9% below the **Short-Term Holder Realized Price** for nearly two months, leaving short-term holders underwater (a sign the market has entered a bearish phase). A further drop below $85,000 combined with a Net Pressure Imbalance reading below -15 would signal an intensified pullback.
Relevant content

Jiang Zhuoer: Sold BNC stock tokens before the US stock market opened, and plans to buy them back after a price dip.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of ViaBTC Mining Pool, posted that he has sold BNC stock ahead of the US stock market opening. He said, "This stock has seen a significant on-chain rally over the weekend, and it will definitely drop once US markets open, so I will buy back after it falls for a while." On September 18, Jiang outlined the investment logic for BNCB: holdings of BNCB have risen again, reaching $17.28 million. In the comparative data he cited, this scale exceeds related positions of Coinbase and MSTR, and is close to that of Tesla. He believes BNCB provides exposure to BNB at roughly a 58% discount. BNC is a BNB treasury company controlled by Binance, while BNCB is Binance’s bStock token corresponding to BNC. He argues that Binance launched BNCB to channel crypto market funds to BNC listed on US stocks, creating a "crypto-stock flywheel" similar to MSTR. He noted that BNB’s current total market cap is around $94 billion, while BNC’s market cap is only about $220 million. If 1% of BNB’s buyer funds shift to BNC, it could erase the current discount. So far, crypto market funds have bought $17.28 million worth of BNCB and $5.29 million worth of BNC4, totaling $22.57 million, accounting for roughly 10% of BNC’s total market cap.

7 minutes ago

NEAR: Milestone conditions have been met, and eligible users can redeem NEAR rewards.

NEAR Protocol tweeted that the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of NEAR has remained at $3.33 for three consecutive days, and the relevant NEAR rewards have been redeemed and distributed—users can log in to their accounts to check details. According to official rules, the team’s first batch of non-transferable milestone tokens totals 333,333 units, with the snapshot trigger condition being that the Total Value Locked (TVL) of Confidential Intents reaches $70 million. Milestone tokens can only be converted into tradable NEAR after NEAR’s three-day VWAP hits or exceeds $3.33. Eligible users are required to maintain a privacy balance of over $100 on near.com and complete at least one privacy swap.

7 minutes ago

Lending protocol Venus Protocol will cease supporting opBNB, Optimism, and Unichain.

Lending protocol Venus Protocol announced in a Twitter post that it will cease support for three blockchains—opBNB, Optimism, and Unichain—on October 23, and advised users with active positions on these chains to close their positions and withdraw funds before the deadline.

7 minutes ago

X-Agent Releases New Whitepaper: Enabling AI to Evolve from "Content Generation" to "Execution and Transactions"

AI Agent onchain operating system X-Agent has released its latest whitepaper, which details its product architecture, MCP ecosystem, business model, and use cases for the $XAGT token. The whitepaper notes that the next phase of the AI industry goes beyond generating text, images, or code—it will enable Agents to understand user intent, call tools, execute tasks, and complete transactions. Centered on the philosophy of "Speak to Build, Share to Connect," X-Agent allows users to create AI Agents with context, memory, skills, API, and wallet connectivity capabilities via natural language, no coding required. In terms of business model, X-Agent aims to integrate the full lifecycle of Agent creation, MCP capability integration, distribution, payment, and monetization. Developers can package APIs, data, and professional services as MCP capabilities, earning revenue through pay-per-use, subscriptions, or transaction commissions. The $XAGT token is planned for use in computing fees for secure runtime environments, LLM and API calls, Agent transaction settlements, MCP service payments, premium Agent template purchases, and developer deployments. Future use cases will expand to service staking, multi-Agent settlements, and ecosystem governance. According to the project team, X-Agent currently boasts over 1 million registered users, has completed more than 1.1 million autonomous tasks, and consumed over 84 billion LLM tokens. Going forward, the project will advance initiatives including Super-Agent, enterprise sandboxes, decentralized Agent Stores, and multi-Agent collaboration systems. Through this whitepaper, X-Agent aims to further clarify its long-term vision: enabling anyone to create Agents via language, and empowering Agents with the ability to execute, distribute, pay, and achieve continuous commercialization.

7 minutes ago

Kimi K3 has officially launched on AWS, with Reuters previously revealing that the two parties were in talks over a revenue split of up to 30%.

Beating AI Insight News Brief: Amazon Web Services (AWS) has officially integrated Kimi K3 into Amazon Bedrock, enabling enterprises to call the model directly via AWS on a per-token basis. AWS has listed Moonshot AI as the direct model provider for Kimi K3. Reuters previously reported that Moonshot AI was in talks with AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud over revenue sharing for Kimi K3, aiming to secure up to 30% of revenue from K3-related services. Microsoft had earlier offered Kimi K3 through its Foundry platform, but via Fireworks AI, with the model ID FW-Kimi-K3. This time, AWS has integrated Moonshot AI directly as the model provider into Bedrock, a move that aligns more closely with the direct partnership model between Moonshot AI and overseas cloud providers previously disclosed by Reuters.

7 minutes ago

A whale has accumulated a total of 47,800 VVV tokens over the past two days, at an average acquisition price of $31.57.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), a wallet address withdrew 31,500 VVV tokens from KuCoin half an hour ago, valued at $1.06 million. The address established a VVV position two days prior, bringing its total holdings to 47,800 VVV tokens worth $1.507 million. Its average withdrawal price stands at $31.57, generating a profit of $87,000.

7 minutes ago

Popular tokens

BitcoinEthereumHyperliquidSolanaTRONBNBTetherAaveXRPPepeFartcoinOndoJupiterUniswapBonkPendleEthenaArbitrumAvalancheLidoChainlinkPolygonDogecoinCardano