The Bitcoin bear market phase is expected to last around 364 days, with the bottom anticipated to occur in October of next year
On December 24th, analyst @alicharts noted that Bitcoin’s major historical cycles have followed a strikingly consistent rhythm in both time and depth:
? It takes roughly 1,064 days for the crypto to move from a market bottom to its peak;
? It takes roughly 364 days to decline from a peak to the subsequent market bottom;
Based on this recurring pattern, @alicharts infers Bitcoin is currently in a 364-day adjustment window—meaning its next bottom may land around October 2026 at a price of roughly $37,500.
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Mainstream Perp DEX Overview: Holiday Liquidity Impact Causes Trading Volume Dip, Lighter Leads Again
On December 24th, DefiLlama data shows that trading volumes across major perpetual DEXs (Perp DEXs) mostly saw a slight dip over the past 24 hours compared to the prior day.
Lighter reclaimed the top spot as its 24-hour trading volume surpassed Hyperliquid once again, with Hyperliquid taking second place. Most platforms reported relatively limited changes in open interest and total value locked (TVL).
Key 24-hour metrics for select Perp DEXs are below:
- **Lighter**: Trading volume ~$61B; TVL ~$14.1B; Open interest ~$15.6B
- **Hyperliquid**: Trading volume ~$56.4B; TVL ~$41.2B; Open interest ~$70.4B
- **Aster**: Trading volume ~$41B; TVL ~$12.7B; Open interest ~$23.9B
- **EdgeX**: Trading volume ~$27.6B; TVL ~$3.67B; Open interest ~$7.43B
- **ApeX**: Trading volume ~$18.9B; TVL ~$46.4M; Open interest ~$2.21B
- **Variational**: Trading volume ~$10.8B; TVL ~$66.18M; Open interest ~$5.03B
- **Backpack**: Trading volume ~$10.7B; TVL not publicly disclosed; Open interest
13 minutes ago
A certain Ethereum ICO OG transferred 2000 ETH after over 10 years of dormancy, achieving a ROI of 9435x
December 24th: LookOnChain monitoring reports that an Ethereum ICO wallet (0x3495) has transferred all 2,000 ETH (valued at $5.85 million) to a new wallet—after remaining dormant for over 10 years.
The wallet holder initially invested just $620 in the ICO to receive 2,000 ETH. Today, that holding is worth $5.85 million, delivering a 9,435x return on investment.
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Analysis: Currently, Bitcoin is in a fragile equilibrium state, and if it falls below $85,000, the decline will further intensify
On December 24th, CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr noted that the **Net Pressure Imbalance indicator**—which measures the buy-sell pressure ratio for short-term holders—has fallen to the 5th percentile of its three-year distribution. This level signals that short-term holders’ buy and sell pressure are currently in balance.
The Net Pressure Imbalance is calculated as the difference between short-term holders’ weighted sell pressure and weighted buy pressure: a positive value means higher current sell pressure, while a negative value signals stronger buy pressure. As of now, the 24-hour moving average of the indicator stands at 4.79, with the asset priced at $87,324. The three-year median for the indicator is 73.17, meaning sell pressure typically dominates during growth phases.
The analyst added that historical periods of balanced pressure have been unstable—often shifting to an uptrend in bull markets before reverting to sell pressure dominance. However, the current setup is mor
13 minutes ago
Bank of Japan October Policy Meeting Minutes: Multiple Board Members Warn of Inflation Risks
TOKYO (Dec 24) — Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) October policy meeting revealed key insights on inflation trends, fiscal policy, and yen depreciation risks:
- One board member noted business and household inflation expectations had reached 2%, emphasizing the need to monitor upside price risks.
- Another member highlighted fiscal policy as a critical factor in shaping economic and price forecasts.
- Several members pointed out core inflation was gradually accelerating but had not yet hit 2%.
- One member projected Japan would meet the BOJ’s price target by next spring, adding wage growth would likely be necessary to sustain the goal.
- Multiple members flagged that yen depreciation could drive inflation overshoots due to higher import costs.
(Source: Wall Street News)
13 minutes ago
Philippines Cracks Down on Unlicensed Virtual Asset Service Providers, Blocks Coinbase and Gemini
December 24, according to Cointelegraph, internet service providers (ISPs) in the Philippines have started blocking major cryptocurrency exchanges as regulatory authorities ramp up local licensing oversight of crypto service providers.
Users have reported that Filipino users cannot access global crypto exchanges Coinbase and Gemini, with several local ISPs restricting access to these platforms. The ISPs’ blocking actions were taken under orders from the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC).
The order directed providers to restrict access to 50 online exchange platforms identified by the Philippine Central Bank (BSP) as operating without proper authorization.
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