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U.S. GDP Growth Surges Rate Cut Fear Could Become "Bubble Burst," January Rate Cut 25 Basis Points Probability Falls to 13.3%

2 hours ago

December 23rd — CME’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at its January 28, 2026, meeting has dropped to 13.3% following today’s U.S. macro data release, while the odds of holding rates steady stand at 86.7%. Last week, that cut probability was 31%. U.S. third-quarter real GDP grew at an annualized, inflation-adjusted rate of 4.3% (initial estimate) — the strongest quarterly pace since the fourth quarter of 2023. For March 2026, the likelihood the Fed keeps rates unchanged through then is 54.4%, with a 40.7% chance of a cumulative 25-bp cut and 4.9% for a total 50-bp reduction. The Fed’s next two FOMC meetings are set for January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.
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