VanEck: Mining Activity Decline Is a 'Bullish Signal' for Bitcoin Price

**Dec. 23** VanEck’s latest report notes a recent drop in Bitcoin mining activity could signal an impending price rise—aligning with historical market trends. In their Monday report *Mid-December 2025 ChainCheck*, VanEck analysts highlight Bitcoin has historically seen higher odds of positive returns following falling mining activity. Since 2014, Bitcoin’s forward 90-day return has been positive 65% of the time when the network’s hash rate dropped, versus 54% when hash rate rose. The analysts add: “Empirical evidence suggests hash rate drops may benefit long-term Bitcoin holders,” calling the pattern a “reverse signal” tied to miner capitulation—where weaker operators exit the network amid financial strain. This correlation is repeating now: Bitcoin’s hash rate fell 4% in the month ending Dec. 15, marking its biggest drop since April 2024. The report further notes: “Additionally, when hash rate compression lasts for an extended period, positive expected returns tend to be more frequent and larger in magnitude.”