Trader Bets Big on 10-Year Treasury Yield to Reach 4% Again in a Matter of Weeks

On December 23, the Financial Times reported that ByteDance plans to invest a staggering $23 billion in artificial intelligence. (Golden Ten)

As of December 23rd, Polymarket’s current probability for the prediction “Bitcoin will rise back to $100,000 this year” is 8%. Additionally, the platform puts the chance of Bitcoin hitting $95,000 again at 25%, and the probability of it falling below $80,000 at 15%.

On December 23, Lighter announced via Discord that it’s in the final stretch of its Season 2 points program. The team is currently conducting data analysis to root out sybil addresses, self-trades, and points tied to wash trading. All deducted points—including those already removed—will be redistributed to the community.

On December 23, Michael Selig was sworn in as Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), per an official announcement. Selig stated, “We’re in a unique period right now: Emerging technologies, products and platforms are proliferating rapidly; retail participation in the commodity market has hit a historic high; and Congress is set to send a digital asset market structure bill to the President—one that will cement the U.S.’s role as a global cryptocurrency hub. I’m honored to take on the critical responsibility of overseeing the stability and security of the U.S. commodity derivatives market amid this rapid transformation.” Prior to his swearing-in, Selig served as Chief Legal Advisor to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Cryptocurrency Working Group and as Senior Counselor to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins.

**December 23rd Update: Polymarket Odds on Next Fed Chair** As of December 23rd, Polymarket odds show Michael Haslett, Director of the National Economic Council (NEC), has a 61% chance to become the next Federal Reserve Chair. Janet Yellen trails at 21%, while current chair Jerome Powell lags at 10%. Previously, CNBC reported that sources familiar with the matter indicated U.S. President Trump may name a new Fed Chair during the first week of January next year.

**Bitcoin Hashrate Drop May Signal Bullish Price Trend, VanEck Analysts Say** Dec. 23 (Cointelegraph) — VanEck analysts report Bitcoin’s network hashrate fell 4% month-over-month as of Dec. 15, a decline they note could bode well for the crypto’s price in coming months. Historically, miner capitulation (linked to hashrate drops) has been a contrarian bullish indicator. In a Monday report, VanEck Digital Asset Research Director Matt Sigel and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush said persistent hashrate declines correlate with higher future returns. Key historical data (since 2014): - 30-day hashrate drop → 65% chance of positive 90-day returns; 30-day hashrate rise → only 54% chance. - 90-day hashrate decline → 77% chance of positive 180-day returns (avg ~72% gain); 90-day hashrate growth → 61% chance of positive returns.