CryptoQuant: Bear Market May Have Started, Mid-Term Support Level Expected at $70,000

On December 20, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant released a report noting Bitcoin demand growth has slowed sharply, signaling a possible bear market ahead. Since 2023, Bitcoin has seen three major on-chain demand surges—driven by the launch of a U.S. spot ETF, the U.S. presidential election outcome, and the Bitcoin Treasury Company bubble—but demand growth has lagged trend levels since early October 2025. This suggests most new demand in the current cycle has already materialized, removing a key pillar of price support. Meanwhile, the derivatives market confirms weakening risk appetite: the 365-day moving average of perpetual futures funding rates has dropped to its lowest since December 2023. Historically, such a decline reflects reduced willingness to hold long positions—a pattern typical of bear markets, not bull markets. Technically, price structure has deteriorated amid weak demand: Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average, a key long-term support level that historically acts as a bull/bear dividing line. However, downside metrics point to a relatively mild bear market: Historically, Bitcoin bear market bottoms have aligned closely with the realized price—currently ~$56,000—indicating a potential maximum 55% retreat from recent highs (the smallest pullback in its history). Mid-term support is expected around $70,000.