Bitunix Analyst: CPI Credibility Constrained, Bank of England May Cut Rates, ECB Shifts to Wait-and-See Mode, Increasing Global Policy Divergence, Crypto Market Focused on Liquidity Expectations

**December 18: U.S. November CPI is set to be released tonight.** Data collection for this inflation print is significantly shortened and highly concentrated due to the prior government shutdown and holiday factors, making it hard to fully reflect underlying inflation trends. The market expects year-over-year November CPI to come in around 3.1% and core CPI around 3.0%. However, multiple institutions have flagged data reliability risks—tariff factors still pose potential upward pressure on commodity prices, so cautious interpretation is advised. **Also tonight, the Bank of England (BoE) is highly likely to deliver a 25bps rate cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 3.75%.** Recent rapid inflation declines, weakening economic activity, and softening employment conditions have sharply increased the odds of Governor Bailey shifting to a dovish stance. The market has priced in over 90% probability of this cut, but consensus is growing that the UK’s rate-cut cycle is nearing its end, with limited future policy room. **In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold rates steady.** Eurozone economic data has beat expectations, and inflation remains stable near the ECB’s target. Market focus has shifted from “whether to cut rates” to “whether to end easing,” with even discussion of medium-to-long-term rate hikes—though the bar for near-term policy changes remains high. **Bitunix Analyst: Against a backdrop of distorted U.S. data, the UK entering a rate-cut phase, and Europe leaning neutral-to-hawkish, global monetary policy divergence is widening.** For the crypto market, short-term volatility will be driven more by macro expectation transmission and liquidity pricing than individual data points. Close monitoring of the U.S. dollar trend and shifts in risk asset sentiment is advised.