Trump Faces Increased Risk of Midterm Seat Loss as Term Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.6%

December 17 (Tuesday) — U.S. nonfarm payrolls data shows the November unemployment rate rose from 4% during the Trump administration to 4.6%. While the jump is concerning, such increases are not unprecedented historically. Per Wall Street Journal (WSJ) statistics, since 1953, six U.S. presidents have seen an increase in the unemployment rate in the first 10 months of their first term (Trump was in his second term, but terms were non-consecutive). They include: - Eisenhower (2.9% → 3.5%) - Nixon (3.4% → 3.5%) - Ford (5.5% → 8.8%) - Reagan (7.5% → 8.3%) - George W. Bush (4.2% → 5.5%) - Obama (7.8% → 9.9%) Ford took office after Nixon’s resignation, making his data less comparable. Of the other five presidents, all except George W. Bush saw their party lose at least 12 House seats in the subsequent midterm elections. Bush’s 2002 midterms focused on national security (not the economy) due to the 9/11 attacks. Obama faced the biggest setback — calling it a “shellacking” — losing 63 seats in 2010. Notably, Trump’s first term saw the unemployment rate fall from 4.7% to 4.2% in his first 10 months, yet Democrats won 41 House seats in the 2018 midterms. This indicates the unemployment rate and election outcomes do not directly correlate. (Jinse)