K33: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Sell Pressure Approaching "Saturation," Distribution Phase Nearing End

**K33: Long-Term Bitcoin Holder Selling Pressure Nearing Saturation** Research and brokerage firm K33 noted in a report published yesterday that selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is approaching saturation after years of distribution, with on-chain selling pressure expected to ease gradually. K33 research director Vetle Lunde said that since 2024, the supply of Bitcoin held for over two years has been steadily declining: roughly 1.6 million BTC (valued at ~$138 billion at current prices) has been reactivated and flowed into the market, reflecting ongoing on-chain selling by early holders. Lunde added this scale far exceeds what technical migrations or structural adjustments can explain, indicating substantial distribution activity. The report highlighted that 2024 and 2025 rank as the second and third-highest years in Bitcoin’s history for long-term supply recirculation, trailing only 2017. Unlike 2017’s cycle—driven primarily by ICOs, altcoin trading, and incentive mechanisms—this round of selling stems more from long-term holders cashing out deep liquidity gains directly into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs and meeting corporate financial needs. Looking ahead, K33 forecasts selling pressure will lighten gradually. Lunde noted ~20% of Bitcoin’s supply has been reactivated over the past two years, putting on-chain selling pressure near saturation. By 2026, the over-two-year held BTC supply is expected to end its downtrend and rise above the current ~12.16 million BTC. Additionally, K33 flagged potential asset allocation rebalancing around quarter-end and new quarter starts. Given Bitcoin’s significant underperformance relative to other assets in Q4, funds with fixed allocation ratios may rebalance at year-end and early 2025—potentially driving phased inflows into the market.