In Kalshi's "Best AI by End of 2025" prediction market, Gemini has all but secured victory

On December 17th, PolyBeats monitoring (via https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot) shows that in Kalshi’s prediction market “What is the best AI by the end of 2025,” Google’s Gemini now holds a 94% win probability—up from 30% at the start of this year. OpenAI’s ChatGPT trails at 5% (down from 41% early 2024), while xAI’s Grok sits at 1% (down from 14% early 2024). Trading volume for this market has reached $14.71 million, with final settlement tied to LM Arena leaderboard data. Additionally, Google’s upcoming Gemini model release is imminent, with Google insider NCW again confirming the date as December 17th today. NCW previously accurately pinned the Gemini 3.0 Flash launch to the second half of December, netting nearly $4,000 in profits—all 4 of their historical trades relate to Gemini product release date propositions. Recently, NCW set December 17th as the Gemini 3.0 Flash launch date: they bought “No” on the 16th at an average 80 cents, and “Yes” on the 17th at 78 cents—both positions are currently profitable.