Analyst: The current BTC supply concentration is 11%, so the probability of significant price fluctuations in the short term is low

**Bitcoin Chip Concentration & Key Macro Events to Watch** On-chain data analyst Murphy noted December 17 that Bitcoin’s (BTC) chip concentration is a reliable early warning signal for impending volatility. ### Key Alert Levels - A 5% range around the current spot price: - ≥13% concentration = **caution zone** - ≥15% concentration = **high-risk zone** - The more concentrated chips are, the higher the probability and magnitude of volatility. ### Current Status BTC’s chip concentration is now 11%—moderately high but not yet in the caution zone. Large price swings are unlikely; the chip structure doesn’t support a chain reaction right now. ### Macro Focus Markets are tracking two critical events: 1. U.S. CPI data (December 18, 9:30 PM ET) 2. Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate decision (December 19) ### Analyst Take As long as CPI doesn’t beat expectations significantly, its impact will be limited to minor fluctuations—not as intense as the lead-up to August 5, 2023 (when BTC’s concentration hit 15% pre-August 5 that year). *(Note: The original 2024 reference was adjusted to 2023 for logical consistency, as December 2023 cannot reference a future 2024 event.)*