Bitwise: Bitcoin is expected to reach a new all-time high in 2026, the halving effect has significantly diminished, and the emergence of 10.11 has reduced the likelihood of a major market crash.

December 17 Cryptocurrency investment firm and index fund manager Bitwise says Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high in 2026, despite a two-month slump. Bitwise CEO Matt Hougan noted that Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle—three years of strong growth followed by a deep pullback year. Under that cycle, 2026 would typically be a pullback year. But we don’t think that’s going to happen. In our view, the key drivers of that four-year cycle—Bitcoin halvings, interest rate cycles, and crypto market swings tied to leverage—have weakened significantly compared to past cycles. - **Halving Impact**: Each subsequent Bitcoin halving is, by definition, only half as impactful as the one before it. - **Interest Rates**: Rates spiked sharply in 2018 and 2022, weighing on prices—but we expect rates to fall in 2026. - **Bubble Risk**: After record liquidations in October 2025, relative deleveraging and better regulation have cut the odds of a major market crash. More importantly, the wave of institutional capital spurred by the 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs will accelerate in 2026. Firms like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Merrill Lynch will begin allocating assets to Bitcoin. Additionally, the crypto market is set to benefit from a pro-crypto regulatory shift post-2024 U.S. election, as Wall Street and fintech firms fully embrace crypto. We expect these combined factors to push Bitcoin to a new all-time high.