The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 24.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by March is 8.1%.

**December 14** MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has once again shared information related to the company’s Bitcoin tracker. Per the firm’s historical pattern, MicroStrategy typically discloses details of its latest Bitcoin holdings additions the day after releasing such related updates.

As of December 14, the probability of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hiking interest rates by 25 basis points in December stands at 98% on Polymarket, while the chance of no rate change is 2%, per the platform’s relevant page. The BOJ is set to announce its monetary policy decision on December 19, according to public information.

On December 14th, Arkham data indicates a whale withdrew 14.098 million WLFI from Binance roughly 20 minutes ago, with the tokens valued at approximately $2.03 million.

On December 14, Cathie Wood—founder of ARK Invest—stated that during the October 11 flash crash, Bitcoin boasted the strongest liquidity among all crypto assets, often leading sell-offs that dragged down other currencies (which saw steeper declines). With markets already pricing in the relevant information, she noted the asset may have already bottomed out. Wood emphasized Bitcoin represents a new global monetary system and asset class, serving as institutions’ preferred entry point into crypto and meriting a frontline position in institutional asset allocation. Regarding Ethereum and Solana, Wood noted the narrative is shifting. Ethereum, she said, is institutions’ infrastructure of choice, with Layer 2 solutions built atop it. However, as Layer 2s proliferate rapidly, whether Ethereum faces "commoditization" risk remains worth watching. Still, its ecosystem continues expanding, making it ARK’s second choice. Solana, meanwhile, leans more toward a consumer-focused blockchain eco

On December 14, Bitwise advisor Jeff Park noted in a post that "the current market structure is fundamentally not supportive of a significant Bitcoin price rally." He cited two key drivers: Bitcoin OG holders are still steadily selling, while demand from ETFs and DATs is slowing. Park also stressed that for Bitcoin to stage a breakout, it must sustainably return to meaningfully higher implied volatility levels—especially upward volatility. Back in November, he referenced the phrase "volatility or death," noting the first emergence of an unusual breakout signal at that time, which eventually sparked a rebound in volatility and reignited some optimism. Unfortunately, implied volatility has since been broadly suppressed again over the past two weeks, dropping from a late-November peak of 63% to 44% now.