「Whale」 Increases ETH Long Position 25x to $12.2M, Opening Price $3,190.92

On December 14th, Polymarket’s current probabilities for Bitcoin outcomes this year are as follows: - 25% chance Bitcoin rises to $100,000 again; - 4% chance it reaches $110,000 again; - 22% chance it drops below $80,000.

December 14: The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 21 today (down from 23 yesterday), per alternative data—keeping the market in "extreme fear" territory. Note: The index ranges from 0 to 100, with components including: - Volatility (25%) - Market volume (25%) - Social media sentiment (15%) - Market surveys (15%) - Bitcoin dominance (10%) - Google Trends (10%)

**Dec 14 – On-chain analyst Murphy noted that some $23.8 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire Dec 26, including quarterly, annual, and large-scale structured products. This signals the BTC derivatives market will see concentrated risk exposure clearing and repricing by year-end: prices will face structural constraints ahead of expiration, with heightened uncertainty after.** **Data shows heavy Open Interest (OI) clustering near current BTC spot levels at two key points: 14,674 BTC in $85,000 puts and 18,116 BTC in $100,000 calls. These positions aren’t retail-driven—they’re from high-net-worth long-term funds, likely including ETF hedging desks, Bitcoin treasury firms, and major family offices holding large spot BTC.** **$85k puts are buyer-side active positions, reflecting strong demand for downside risk hedging. The heavy $100k call OI, meanwhile, isn’t a bullish signal—it’s long-term funds giving up upside at $100k to lock in current cash flow certainty and risk contro

**China Confirms Digital Yuan Push, Reaffirms Virtual Currency Ban** On December 14, Wang Yongli—former vice president of a Chinese bank—wrote in a WeChat Official Account article that since May 2025, the U.S. and Hong Kong, China have been actively advancing legislation for stablecoins and cryptocurrencies (digital assets). The U.S. has also pushed for bills to ban digital dollar issuance, sparking a global wave of stablecoin and crypto legislation and development. This has sparked debate in China over whether to aggressively promote renminbi stablecoin legislation and development, as well as whether to continue advancing the digital yuan. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) subsequently announced it would optimize the digital yuan’s position in the monetary hierarchy, further refine its management system, and actively drive its rollout. On November 28, the PBOC and 13 other departments jointly held a **Coordination Mechanism Meeting on Combating Virtual Currency Trading and Sp

On December 14th, Charlie Noyes—General Partner at crypto venture capital firm Paradigm—announced his resignation from the role. Notably, he will remain involved with Kalshi as a board observer alongside Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang, and continue supporting the firm’s portfolio companies and founders. A key background point: Noyes was Paradigm’s first employee, and was just promoted to General Partner this past February.

**Quick Update: China’s Yuzhi Financial Exposed as Virtual Currency Ponzi Scam** On December 14, *The Economic Observer* reported that China-based Yuzhi Financial Co., Ltd. ran a fund scam under the guise of virtual currency trading. The firm and its affiliated platforms (including HSEX) marketed false Bitcoin contract trades, promising: - Fixed 1% daily static profits - Extra “dynamic rewards” for referring new investors - Minimum 7,400 yuan investment - Up to 370.6% cumulative returns in 30 days (or doubling during annual events) In reality, no real trades occurred—Yuzhi relied on new investors’ funds to pay old ones (a classic Ponzi scheme). **Withdrawal Restrictions:** - Nov 27–Dec 7, 2025: Blocked all user withdrawals - Starting Dec 8: Cited “wash trades” to impose 30% withdrawal fees + 20% “self-certified margin” for cashouts, triggering a “soft exit scam” and double losses for investors **Risk Alerts & Clarifications:** - Local bodies in Xinyi (Guang