Raoul Pal: The current bull market cycle is expected to peak in 2026, and cryptocurrency is actually a macro asset.

**December 11 – At the Solana Breakpoint Conference, Raoul Pal (former Goldman Sachs executive, author of *The Global Macro Investor*, and co-founder/CEO of Real Vision) outlined critical macro and crypto takeaways:** - A falling labor force participation rate signals a shrinking working-age population. Population structure is a key debt driver; as global population growth slows, the debt-to-GDP ratio will keep rising — that’s the core problem. - We must confront the global debt crisis, and currency depreciation has long been a tool to address (or delay) it. Signs already show the Fed rethinking its balance sheet and how to “monetize” this debt; we expect ~$80 trillion in liquidity injections over the next 12 months. - Many think the crypto cycle is over, but the real driver is the **debt maturity cycle** — not Bitcoin’s halving cycle. - This isn’t a 4-year cycle anymore; it’s a 5.4-year cycle. We’ve passed the trough and are entering the upswing. The cycle will peak at the end of 2026 (not 2025) — a breakthrough for global macro investors: crypto is a *macro asset*. - Altcoin/Bitcoin cross-rates are tied to the business cycle, which appears to be bottoming out (not peaking).