September PCE Data Tonight, Fed Faces Moment of Truth

**Wall Street Laser-Focused on Delayed September PCE Data (Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge)** With this critical deadline approaching this Friday, December 5, Wall Street is laser-focused on the upcoming U.S. September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. - Not just the first official inflation reading since late September, it’s the **lodestar** for whether U.S. stocks can escape recent volatility and chart their next direction. - Delayed by the prior government shutdown, the report has left markets rife with uncertainty. Investors, analysts, and even Fed officials are waiting eagerly to cut through the economic fog. ### Key Data to Watch (8:00 PM ET Today) - **Core PCE YoY**: Prior = 2.9% (no official forecast given, but markets are tuned to inflation trends). - **Headline PCE YoY**: Expected = 2.8% (slight uptick from August’s 2.7% — would mark the highest since April 2024 if realized). - **PCE MoM**: Expected = 0.3% (holds steady vs. prior month). ### What It Means for the Fed & Markets This report is the **final puzzle piece** for the Fed ahead of next week’s policy meeting. The central bank is locked in a tug-of-war over its dual mandate (low inflation + maximum employment): - **Easing/On-Target Inflation**: Would give Fed officials more cover to cut rates — solidifying market bets on a December rate cut. - **Unexpected Overshoot**: Would weaken the case for cuts, and could force the Fed to hold rates steady in their current 3.75%-4% range. 注：调整了时间表述（加ET更符合美国习惯）、用了地道财经术语（headline PCE, uptick, hold steady, overshoot, give cover）、简化冗余表达（如“filled with uncertainty”→“rife with uncertainty”）、纠正拼写（lodestar而非lode star），整体更贴合美国财经快讯的简洁直接风格。