Two suspected insider addresses bet on 「OpenAI to release a new model on the 13th」, with the majority of their historical profits coming from OpenAI-related predictions

On December 5, a betting market entry on PolyBeats—titled “Will OpenAI release a new cutting-edge model before December 13?”—was created 5 hours prior. As of press time, its implied probability has surged from 45% to 91%. The market’s launch comes amid widespread rumors of an internal “Code Red” memo at OpenAI dated December 2. According to reports, CEO Sam Altman, responding to the challenge posed by Google’s Gemini 3, internally directed his team to “delay the ad and release the inference model next week” (scheduled between December 8 and 12). Internal assessments suggest the new inference model’s performance will be “ahead of Gemini 3.” While OpenAI officials have stayed silent on the matter, competitive pressure and rumors of internal ad delays have spurred widespread market speculation that a new cutting-edge model (such as the GPT-5 series or an inference-focused model) is imminent, targeting the December 13 deadline. Two top traders currently lead the “Yes” shareholding list: - Trader 0xLuck holds 2,496 “Yes” shares at an average price of 88 cents. The account has just 1 losing trade out of 25, with a historical profit of nearly $45,000—over half of which stems from OpenAI-related positions. - Trader lamps holds 1,973 “Yes” shares at an average price of 35 cents. 84% of their $73,000 historical profit comes from OpenAI-related positions.