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Tonight the US will release a series of employment data, with the probability of a rate cut as high as 94%.

2025.12.04 18:17:57

December 4th. Tonight at 8:30 PM ET, the U.S. November Challenger Job-Cut Report will be released. At 9:30 PM ET, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 29 will be announced, with an expected reading of 220,000. Also at 11:00 PM ET, two U.S. data points are due: the November Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and September Factory Orders (month-over-month). While tonight’s employment data is relatively key, the market is now heavily pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its December meeting. As of press time, the probability of this outcome on Polymarket has hit 94%.
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