Bitunix Analyst: ADP Employment Shocker Overlapping Fund Divergence, BTC $93k a Key Short-Term Bull/Bear Inflection Point

On December 4, latest data showed U.S. ADP private payrolls unexpectedly fell by 32,000 in November—far weaker than market forecasts—signaling a faster pace of labor market cooling. The report is a key lead-up to the Fed’s December rate decision, with soft jobs data adding another variable to potential policy shifts. Post-data, safe havens gained: gold rebounded to ~$4,220, while crypto markets saw wider range-bound swings. Macro breakdown: Job losses were concentrated in small businesses (firms with <50 employees cut 120k positions last month, the biggest drop since March 2023), reflecting dual pressure on end demand and financing conditions. Wage growth slowed to 4.4%, pointing to marginal easing of inflationary pressures. Rate futures now price a nearly 90% chance of a 25bp Fed rate cut in December. Short-term rate expectations have turned dovish, the dollar index is seeing heightened volatility, and risk assets are in a repricing phase. Crypto markets: ETF flows are diverging sharply—BTC spot ETFs saw $14.9M in net outflows yesterday, while ETH had $140.2M in net inflows, signaling a rotation from BTC to the Ethereum ecosystem. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled: - BTC: $45.07M in long positions closed, $50.73M in short positions closed - ETH: $26.38M in long positions closed, $103.37M in short positions closed ETH short unwinds were far larger, keeping short-term volatility elevated. Currently, BTC is holding near $93k—watch if it can stay above this level. A break below would make $90.5k a key short-term support. Bitunix analysts note that amid softening jobs data and rising rate-cut expectations, markets are in a mixed phase of "macro turning point bets + crypto internal fund rotations." ETF flows and liquidation data show risk sentiment is diverging (not broad-based expansion), pointing to short-term structural choppiness. Going forward, watch for: 1) Further downward revisions to rate expectations; 2) Continued capital diffusion from BTC to high-beta crypto assets. These will set the risk profile and trend trajectory for the next market move.