Bitunix Analyst: ISM Manufacturing Contracts Again, Shadow Chair Rumors Heat Up, BTC Short-Term Focus on 88000 Resistance

December 2nd — **Macro & Policy Updates** The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November hit 48.2, marking its ninth straight month in contraction territory. Market hopes for a rebound failed to materialize, reinforcing expectations of Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, recession fears flared again as economic outlook uncertainty deepened. Trump is accelerating internal transitions, and the “shadow effect” of his incoming Fed chair pick is already emerging early. Markets fear monetary policy guidance could face dual-signal confusion over the next six months, potentially triggering sharp swings in the dollar and rate expectations. **Crypto Market Volatility** Amid macro and policy noise, the crypto market hit another bout of volatility overnight. Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded from lows to near $87,000, though its overall structure remains in a weak repair phase. Short-term focus centers on whether BTC can break above the $88k liquidation level. A failure to clear this smoothly could send it retesting support at $85k. Liquidity data shows current hotspots at three key nodes: short liquidations at $88k, and long liquidations at $85.5k and $83.8k. Short-term volatility risks remain elevated; persistent policy uncertainty could keep BTC range-bound, driven by liquidation activity. **Key Levels** - **Breakout Level**: $88k (critical short-term resistance) - **Supports**: $85k, $83.8k (defensive levels below) **Bitunix Analyst Take** U.S. monetary policy is entering an unprecedented transition phase, with the “shadow chair” dynamic and inflation path uncertainty putting markets under multiple repricing pressures in the coming weeks. BTC’s short-term direction hinges on the interplay between liquidation density and macro sentiment. Traders are advised to watch fund flows, volatility spikes, and policy signal consistency to spot subsequent structural breakouts.