Analysis: Highly Anticipated U.S. September Retail Sales MoM Below Expectations

November 25th: In the United States, retail sales growth in September was lower than anticipated, taking a pause following the recent robust increases. The data released on Tuesday indicated a month-on-month retail sales growth of 0.2%, with August's growth remaining unchanged at 0.6%. Economists who were surveyed had previously forecasted a 0.4% growth in retail sales for the month. Sales had picked up in the previous months, partly because consumers were eager to purchase electric vehicles before the end of September for the tax credit. The slowdown in sales may not change economists' expectations for a rebound in third-quarter consumer spending. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales in September decreased by 0.1%, while August's retail sales were revised down to a 0.6% increase. These so-called core retail sales are closely in line with the consumer spending component of GDP. However, current consumption is mainly driven by high-income households. Many low-to-middle-income consumers are experiencing cost pressures, partly due to import tariffs, resulting in what economists call a K-shaped economy. (Jin10)