Economists Raise U.S. Next-Year Economic Growth Outlook, Expect Fed to Slow Rate Cut Pace

On November 25th, a fresh survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) showed that the U.S. economy is predicted to experience moderate growth in 2026, while job creation is expected to remain sluggish. The survey, which was carried out from November 3rd to 11th, involved 42 professional forecasters. The median projection for economic growth in 2026 is 2%, which is higher than the 1.8% from the previous October survey. According to Reuters, this contrasts significantly with the 1.3% growth rate forecasted in the June survey. Respondents' median forecast also indicates that this year's inflation rate is anticipated to stabilize at 2.9% (slightly lower than the 3% projected in October) and then only moderately decline to 2.6% in 2026. Economists attribute a considerable portion of inflation to tariffs. Meanwhile, economists foresee that job growth will remain weak, with the monthly average addition of non-farm payroll jobs projected to be 58,000, which is lower than the 60,000 from the October survey. They also predict that in 2026, the monthly average addition of non-farm payroll jobs will be 64,000, below the 75,000 forecasted in the October survey. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026 and remain at that level throughout the year. Regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, it is expected that there will be a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, followed by only an additional 50-basis-point cut in 2026 to bring the policy rate closer to a neutral level. (Jin10)