Opinion: Market Overpricing Fed's Easing Expectations, Another Rate Cut in January Next Year Is Justified

November 24th: Deutsche Bank presented its 2026 outlook. It predicted a 2.4% growth rate for the U.S. GDP and set a year-end target of 8000 points for the S&P 500 Index. (Bloomberg)

On November 24th, Arthur Hayes made a post on social media suggesting a slight enhancement in the current market liquidity: · The Fed's quantitative tightening will come to a halt on December 1st, and this Wednesday might be the final balance sheet contraction. · The US banking sector witnessed an expansion in credit in November. Currently, the market is consolidating below $90,000 and may be retesting the $80,000 support zone. However, I believe the $80,000 level should remain intact. I might start accumulating on a small scale, but a full-scale move will have to be postponed until after the new year.

On November 24th, according to the latest weekly report provided by CoinShares, last week witnessed a total withdrawal of $1.94 billion from digital asset investment products. The cumulative withdrawal over four weeks reached $4.92 billion, marking it as the third largest withdrawal since 2018. Bitcoin and Ethereum took the lead in the outflows. Although both showed signs of recovery on Friday, funds shorting Bitcoin continued to flow in significantly. Among alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins), Solana experienced an outflow of $156 million, while XRP went against the trend with an inflow of $89.3 million.

On November 24th, as per Coinglass data, the current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates suggest that although the cryptocurrency market has witnessed a rebound in the past two days, participants still maintain an overall bearish sentiment. The funding rates for the majority of asset trading pairs are negative. However, compared to altcoins, the bearish sentiment is relatively weaker for Bitcoin and Ethereum. BlockBeats Note: The Funding Rate is a fee established by cryptocurrency exchanges to maintain the balance between the contract price and the underlying asset price. It is typically applicable to perpetual contracts and serves as a fund exchange mechanism between long and short traders. The trading platform does not charge this fee. It is used to adjust the cost or profit of traders holding contracts in order to keep the contract price close to the underlying asset price. When the Funding Rate is 0.01%, it represents the baseline rate. When the Funding Rate is greater than 0.01

On November 24th, as per the official announcement, Hyperliquid's on-chain digital asset treasury project Harmonix is set to launch its public sale on the ICO platform Sonar. The public sale will commence at 19:00 UTC on November 24th and raise $600,000 at a unit price of $0.025. The allocation will be $200,000 for the private sale and $400,000 for the public sale. Harmonix token holders and early supporters will have the priority to invest. In previous news, Harmonix has completed a $1.5 million seed round financing, with investors including IMC, Presto, Pyth, Skyland, Hodl, Tachyon, as well as angel investors from Solanium, sqrDAO, Kraken, ARC, and early Hyperliquid builders.