HTX DeepThink: The Crypto Market Enters a "Low-Liquidity Game," with the Downtrend Possibly Nearing its End but Risk Appetite Yet to Recover

November 24th. The columnist of HTX DeepThink and the researcher of HTX Research, Chloe, pointed out that this week, the U.S. market showed a feature of "data-intensive landing" before the holiday. Multiple core economic indicators are scheduled to be released from Monday to Wednesday. High-frequency employment data (especially initial jobless claims on Wednesday) will be a key factor influencing risk appetite. The crypto market is still digesting the adjustment since October. Bitcoin has fallen back about 30% from its high point. ETFs are experiencing continuous net outflows, and the Coinbase premium is weakening. Overall sentiment remains low. Although there is support for the mid-term outlook with expectations of "stop tapering + rate cut in advance," the current stage is closer to a rebalancing before the liquidity transition, and institutional positions are mainly reducing and hedging. Derivative pricing reflects a defensive stance in the market: The CME BTC futures basis has fallen to below 4%, and the term structure is trending flat. Short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-dated contracts. The 25-delta skew is negative for all terms. IV rises synchronously with the price decline. Overall, the downward phase may be nearing its end, but risk appetite has not yet recovered. If consumer and employment data weaken moderately this week, the market may see a technical rebound. If the data leans strong and suppresses rate cut expectations, a short-term pullback may still be triggered in the context of weak holiday liquidity. Analysis believes that the area around $80,000 is a key observation range for medium to long-term allocation demand.