Analysis: Bitcoin's end to the downtrend is the first signal of a "capitulation event," Cryptocurrency, AI, and US Stocks are now deeply intertwined

2025.11.24 13:54:16

On November 24th, Peter Tchir from Academy Securities, a renowned strategist, warned in a recent report that there has formed a highly intertwined relationship among cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence infrastructure development, and passive investment funds in the US stock market, similar to a "strong bond." As passive investment has surpassed active investment, through ETF tools like QQQ, billions of retirement and hedging funds are effectively closely tied to the capital expenditure cycle of companies in the crypto treasury (DAT) sector and AI giants. On October 11th, during the US stock market closing period, Bitcoin witnessed a sharp sell-off from $122,000 to $105,000. This collapse not only devastated crypto assets but also directly exerted liquidity pressure on widespread stock portfolios through the transmission chain of ETFs and related listed companies. Currently, market attention has collectively focused on the stability of the crypto market. Peter Tchir believes that the risks the current economy is facing are greater than ever. If cryptocurrency fails to stabilize, the resulting liquidity crunch and wealth erosion will not only end the tech stock frenzy but may also slow down the pace of overall macroeconomic growth. Everyone is holding their breath: The stabilization of Bitcoin will be the first signal that the "pain trade" is coming to an end. Goldman Sachs trader Brian Garrett stated bluntly that many clients are viewing Bitcoin's performance as a barometer of future risk appetite, and if Bitcoin trading improves, a year-end rally may reappear.

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