Independent Researcher: $61 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Collapse

November 21st. Financial market independent researcher Perera (Shanaka Anslem Perera) noted that yesterday, an unprecedented upheaval took place. After Nvidia's financial report was released, its stock price surged by 5%, but within 18 hours, it plummeted into negative territory. Wall Street algorithms captured a significant anomaly that humans had not noticed: there was a severe discrepancy in the financial data. The specific findings are as follows: Nvidia's accounts receivable increased by 89% to $33.4 billion in one year. The payment cycle extended from 46 days to 53 days, and chip inventory soared by 32% to $19.8 billion. A $19.3 billion profit only converted into $14.5 billion of cash flow, with a conversion rate of 75%, which is far below the industry average of 95%, resulting in a $4.8 billion gap reaching a crisis level. The AI ecosystem fund loop was exposed: Nvidia injected $2 billion into xAI. xAI borrowed $12.5 billion to buy back Nvidia chips. Microsoft invested $13 billion in OpenAI. OpenAI committed to purchase $50 billion of Azure. Microsoft then placed a $100 billion order with Nvidia. Oracle provided $30 billion in cloud credits to OpenAI. OpenAI then bought Nvidia chips for Oracle. The same money was repeatedly counted as revenue, but the cash never actually materialized. Smart money has fled: Peter Thiel sold $100 million of Nvidia stock on November 9th. SoftBank liquidated its $5.8 billion stake on November 11th. Michael Burry bought Nvidia March 2026 $140 put options. Bitcoin dropped from $126,000 to $86,000. Analysts warn that if Nvidia falls by another 40%, a $23 billion Bitcoin forced liquidation will be triggered, causing a crypto market avalanche. The timeline is set: Bad debt will be exposed in the February 2026 financial report. The credit rating will be downgraded in March. The initial financial restatement will take place in April. Nvidia's fair value is $71, and the current price is $186, with an overvaluation of 162%. The 90-day countdown to the AI bubble bursting has begun. Overall, Perera is cautious about central bank intervention, geopolitical friction, and tech concentration risk. He advises investors to shift towards assets that are mainly driven by "thermodynamics and game theory" rather than relying on nostalgic central banks.