Lookonchain APP

App Store

Analysis: The $60,000 to $70,000 range for Bitcoin is considered a deep bear price range, with 50% of chips in unrealized losses.

2025.11.20 17:32:26

On November 20th, the on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin's PSR (Profit Supply Ratio), which is used to observe market optimism and fear, has seen its 7-day moving average drop below 70%. Historically, during past market cycles when shifting from bull to bear, the initial decline often reaches this level, followed by a rebound after extreme emotional pressure. Whenever the PSR falls below 50%, it heralds a long-term deep bear market, while also presenting the highest value for investment, marking the most worthwhile price range for buying. The current BTC price is holding at $92,000. According to UPPD data, 6.7 million BTC are currently in unrealized losses, accounting for 33% of the total circulation. Assuming that holders of coins bought at a lower price are no longer selling, when the price drops to $59,000, around 9.744 million BTC would be locked in at a loss. At this point, the PSR would be around 50%. Since the PSR is continuously changing, a static numerical evaluation only represents a rough range. Based on experience, if BTC falls into the $60,000 to $70,000 range, the PSR is likely to drop below 50%, indicating the entry into a deep bear market phase.
Relevant content

The American Crypto Political Action Committee Fellowship PAC appoints Tether Executive as Chairman

On April 1, crypto reporter Eleanor Terrett noted that the pro-cryptocurrency U.S. super PAC Fellowship PAC — established last year — has tapped Jesse Spiro, Tether’s head of regulatory affairs, as its chairman. The first slate of candidate endorsements will be announced in the coming days, aiming to boost support for pro-crypto industry candidates in the midterm elections.

3 minutes ago

Iran's Foreign Minister once again refuses ceasefire, seeking to avoid a repeat of the same aggression

April 1: Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said, "We don’t accept a ceasefire; instead, we seek an end to the war, assurances that similar aggression won’t happen again, and clarity that only Iran and Oman can decide the future of the Strait of Hormuz."

3 minutes ago

Ripple Announces Launch of Enterprise-Grade Crypto Fund Management System Digital Asset Accounts with Unified Treasury

On April 1, Ripple announced the launch of two enterprise-grade crypto asset management solutions: Digital Asset Accounts and Unified Treasury. These tools enable corporate finance teams to manage both fiat and digital assets on a single platform, supporting direct management of RLUSD, XRP, and other assets. Seamlessly integrated into existing fund management workflows, the system eliminates reliance on separate wallets, exchanges, or custody platforms—lowering adoption barriers for businesses.

3 minutes ago

CFTC: Market Manipulation Prohibition Equally Applies to Insider Trading, Exploiting Material Nonpublic Information Deemed Unlawful

On April 1, David I. Miller, Enforcement Director of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), outlined five key focus areas for future CFTC enforcement: insider trading, market manipulation, market abuse, retail fraud, and anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) violations. Miller clarified that CFTC insider trading rules extend to prediction markets—trading on undisclosed material information is illegal and will be “actively investigated and prosecuted.” On the regulatory front, the CFTC emphasized a shift away from an “enforcement-first” approach to prioritizing core illegal conduct like fraud and manipulation. The agency also plans to launch a new cooperation policy offering leniency—even full immunity—to institutions that voluntarily self-audit, cooperate with enforcement probes, and complete full remediation. Additionally, the CFTC will strengthen collaboration with trading platforms and law enforcement agencies, with a focus on combating ene

3 minutes ago

The market no longer buys into Trump's verbal ceasefire, with multiple US-Iran conflict events showing no probability fluctuation.

Per monitoring from PolyBeats, Donald Trump has frequently raised expectations for U.S.-Iran talks lately, claiming he’s been in contact with Iranian officials. Today, he again alleged the Iranian president requested a ceasefire—only to be immediately rebuked by Iran. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated the Strait of Hormuz situation is “firmly under its control” and will not open to the country’s enemies “because of the U.S. president’s absurd antics.” Multiple prediction markets show Trump’s recent verbal comments are no longer effective: - Probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by end-April: Holds at 38% (recent low), signaling markets don’t expect rapid progress. - Probability the Strait of Hormuz stays open to navigation by end-April: Has fallen steadily to 20% (recent low)—Iran controls the strait tightly and has turned it into an economic warfare tool against the U.S. - Probability U.S. ground troops enter Iran by month’s end: Remains high at 55% as

3 minutes ago

Federal Reserve's Mester: Iran War Energy Shock Will Boost Inflation Across the Board

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on April 1 that the energy shock tied to the Iran conflict will likely impact overall inflation and could put upward pressure on core prices. “I expect commodity price increases to feed one-for-one into overall inflation, pushing it higher for a period,” Bullard noted. “Core inflation will also face some upward pressure, and I’ll closely monitor the extent of pass-through and the correlation between the two measures.” (Source: FXStreet)

3 minutes ago